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Artefact 2 — Benefit Hypothesis

Purpose​

Turn a forecast benefit into an explicit, testable hypothesis rather than a statement of certainty.

Hypothesis form​

We believe that enabling <capability / intervention>
will cause or contribute to <changed behaviour / outcome>
resulting in <measurable benefit>
for <stakeholder / organisation>
from a baseline of <baseline>
towards <target or range>
because <causal reasoning>.
We expect to observe first <leading indicators>
and later <lagging indicators>.
We will reconsider the hypothesis if <disconfirming evidence>.

Copy/paste template​

# BEN-xx — <Benefit name>

## Definition

**Owner:**  
**Objective(s):**  
**Outcome(s):**  
**Beneficiary:**  
**Value type:** cash / capacity / service / risk / quality / other

## Hypothesis

We believe ...

## Baseline

**Measure:**  
**Value / range:**  
**As-of date:**  
**Source:**  
**Baseline confidence:** high / medium / low

## Target

**Target / range:**  
**Target date or horizon:**  
**Minimum worthwhile movement:**  

## Causal assumptions

1.  
2.  
3.  

## Evidence

### Leading indicators

-  

### Lagging indicators

-  

### Counter-indicators / disconfirming evidence

-  

## Dependencies

-  

## Disbenefits / adverse effects

-  

## Current assessment

**Confidence:** high / medium / low  
**Trend:** positive / neutral / negative / unknown  
**Last reviewed:**  
**Evidence references:**

Guidance​

Prefer ranges when appropriate​

Use:

30–40% reduction, medium confidence

rather than pseudo-precise forecasts unsupported by evidence.

Separate capacity from cash​

Saving ten minutes per employee does not automatically create a cash-releasing saving.

Record whether value is expected to become:

  • released capacity;
  • avoided future cost;
  • cash saving;
  • revenue;
  • service improvement;
  • risk reduction;
  • quality improvement.

State falsification conditions​

A hypothesis is much more useful when the team knows what evidence would cause it to reconsider the intervention.